The National Commissioner of Police and the District Commissioner of Police in South Iceland have declared a Civil Protection Uncertainty phase due to seismic unrest in Katla volcano in Mýrdalsjökull. The contingency plan for an eruption in Mýrdalsjökull has been activated accordingly. Uncertainty phase means that a course of events has started that may lead to natural hazard in the near future. Monitoring, assessment, research and evaluation of the situation is increased.
Increased seismic activity started on September 29 and is still ongoing. Following a meeting with the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection it is likely that the seismic activity is caused by magma movement within the Katla caldera. Three most likely scenarios have been defined.
1 Seismic activity dies down with no further consequences
2. Glacial outburst flood, jökulhlaup, will emerge from the glacier due to a small eruption or emptying of cauldrons
3. Eruption starts in Katla Myrdalsjökull that will force its way through the ice with glacial outburst floods and ash fall
Accordingly a warning has been issued for travellers in the vicinity of Mýrdalsjökull especially around glacial rivers especially Múlakvísl and Jökulsá á Sólheimasandi.