The National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, in consultation with the police chief of South Iceland, has decided to cancel uncertainty phase due to the unrest in the volcano Öræfajökull.
The uncertainty phase was declared on November 17th, 2017 due to increased seismic activity in the volcano as well as floods in the river Kvíá and the formation of an Ice-cauldron in the top crater of the volcano.
Erthquake activity
The weekly number of earthquakes in the volcano Öræfajökull has been below 20 since February of this year. Most weeks the number of earthquakes has been below 10 which is far lesser activity than in the preceding months. Earthquakes above the size of 2.0 have not been detected in the volcano since February and the cumulative seismic moment has not increased much since then.
Magma inflation
Magma inflation in the volcano has been decreasing, The uplift detected by GPS in the area at the present is mostly attributed to crustal uplift caused by glacial retreat.
River discharge and water conductivity
In recent months the discharge of rivers around the volcano Öræfajökull has been in good correlation to precipitation and snow melt in the area. Geothermal water has not been detected in the rivers Kotá, Kvíá and Virkisá, water conductivity has been normal.
Monitoring system
When the unrest at Öræfajökull volcano commencet in the fall of 2017 the network of monitoring equipment was improved substantially. The number of seismometers and GPS instruments, which monitor crustal movements, were increased. Discharge meters and conductivity meters were installed in rivers around the volcano.
All of these instruments stream data to the Icelandic Meteorological Office where it is monitored around the clock. This improved monitoring system increases the possisbility of issuing timely warnings for an imminent volcanic eruption and is imperative for a biult up area so close to a volcano.